An American acquaintance attempted to “explain the Donald” to me shortly after President Trump secured his second term in the White House with a landslide victory.
Firstly, she said President Trump’s success was not as big a shock to Americans as it was for those living in almost every other country on the planet.
His appeal was enduring and simple – he still epitomised the American Dream, even for a lot of his political opponents. Say what you like about his politics, but you cannot deny the man’s business success and his elevation to the ranks of the super-rich.
Even if there are significant questions marks surrounding his business acumen and the true scale of his business empire, the deal has already been agreed – Donald is a self-made multi-millionaire and living embodiment of what so many Americans strive to achieve.
Construction braced itself for a difficult period that has largely failed to materialise
Paul Groves Group Editor for Specification
It’s what he does
Secondly, she told me not to get hung up on whatever he said. When it comes to understanding President Trump, his actions always speak louder than his words.
She pointed out that he will say so much on a particular subject that you start to lose the will to live. But it is what he does to back up those words that is all-important.
Sometimes it is absolutely nothing, others it is a set of policies that brush alongside the often inexplicably ridiculous rhetoric to provide something of substance.
On very rare occasions, the action and the words are much closer aligned.
But what is becoming increasingly clear is that on those issues where his word salad and his policy do match more closely, his success record and his approval rating tend to fall.
It is the well-populated middle ground, where the words and actions are distant neighbours, that he does find success.
Arguably, President Trump’s much-heralded and much-derided tariff programme is a prime example of where the rhetoric and the policy match closely but fail to deliver.
Indeed, it is becoming increasingly likely that the real impact of the tariffs will be felt within the USA itself, and President Trump might be delivering some serious self-inflicted wounds that he could struggle to recover from.
That would leave his legacy severely tarnished even amongst the most ardent MAGA supporters.
Dealing in TACOs
It has become known as TACO versus The Art of the Deal.
Or the idea that Trump Always Chickens Out and the reality of his ability and approach is a long way removed from the best-selling book that cemented his place as America’s Favourite Business Brain.
Indeed, there is a growing belief that President Trump’s book is a work of fiction, rather than an insight into the mindset and attitude of one of the USA’s biggest reality TV stars.
After all, The Art of the Deal was ghost written by journalist Tony Shwartz rather than straight from the gold pen of the then Mr Trump himself.
With questions persisting about the scale and success of the President’s own business empire, the fact that so many of his flagship policies as President have either failed to take off at all or have well and truly tanked (to use a favoured American expression), along with the tariff debacle continuing to become more of an empty threat than a serious problem for other countries around the world, the TACO Trump nickname is getting harder to dismiss.
Who do tariffs benefit?
Take construction, for example, where the evidence is mounting that Trump’s Tariffs is having little if any lasting or damaging impact on the industry. The only long-term impact could well be felt by the American companies that the tariffs are supposedly designed to bolster.
In the short-term there has been cost inflation on some key materials and, coming during a prolonged period of uncertainty, the tariffs are being felt in the UK.
It is yet another challenge and obstacle the industry does not need when there are plenty of home-grown issues it needs to tackle.
There is also some uncertainty regarding exports, but that has primarily impacted on the machinery market.
Twelve months ago, there was plenty written about the potentially dire impact of the tariffs on an industry that was already close to buckling.
The likes of the Building Cost Information Service highlighted how the uncertainty and confusion surrounding the tariffs was causing serious wobbles within the industry.
But even back then there was a realisation that the perception of the damage that might be caused was likely to have a greater impact than the tariffs themselves.
The industry braced itself for a difficult period that has largely failed to materialise.
Affecting investment
Back then, Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds launched a consultation, encouraging input from construction companies and supply chain professionals and stating: “The best interests of British business has shaped our approach throughout as we prepare for all scenarios.”
Yet as the consultation drew to a close, Gareth Belsham, Director at Bloom Building Consultancy, said the tariffs’ direct impact on the UK construction industry would be limited, given the low volume of exports to the US.
But he did warn of their significant influence on investor sentiment and said: “While the direct impact of US tariffs on UK construction will be modest, their chilling effect on business sentiment is real. Boards worrying about a possible recession later this year need a very good reason to sign off on a big capital investment right now.”
Everyone’s tired
But we now have evidence that the worry has been replaced by fatigue.
This month, with the latest round of threats issued by the White House on tariffs linked to the future of Greenland, the British Chambers of Commerce released a survey that suggested the levels of concern amongst British businesses has dropped significantly whilst the levels of irritation at the political posturing has increased dramatically.
David Bharier, Head of Research, British Chambers of Commerce, said; “Donald Trump’s latest threat to impose tariffs on UK goods over Greenland has landed with less shock than exhaustion.
“While exposure remains uneven, uncertainty is widespread, and tolerance for prolonged trade noise appears to be wearing thin. For many firms, this no longer feels like a discrete trade dispute, but another episode in a rolling cycle of tariff threats.”
All of which makes that less than flattering TACO epithet start to ring true.
It could end with President Trump’s greatest legacy being a gawdy, gold-lined new ballroom for the White House. Although for some that might still constitute another glorious chapter in the great American Dream.
Paul Groves is Group Editor for Specification
