In May, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) released a whopping 554-page report entitled ‘A Well Adapted UK: The Fourth Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk’.
The Report sets out a series of actionable solutions for Government to address the impacts of climate change across all aspects of life in the UK.
The CCC highlights that we are not just facing the projected threats of remaining at a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, but in fact, we are already experiencing real danger from global warming, right on our doorstep.
To drive urgent change, the committee’s assessment identifies a number of climate risks that must be addressed to bolster climate adaptation, as well as the estimated costs of taking action, or indeed, not taking action.
In this short article, I’ll be focusing in on one of these key risks: heat.
How is heat affecting us, and how will it into the future? What can government do to help?
This extreme heat poses a public health risk, leading to excess deaths and putting pressure on the NHS
Amy McEwen Policy and Public Affairs Graduate for Mitsubishi Electric
Intensifying heat
We’ve seen temperatures in the UK increase dramatically in recent years, notably with the scorching summer of 2022, which brought a heatwave exceeding a record-breaking 40°C.
Aptly enough, I’m writing this as we are entering into a bank holiday heat wave that also breaks UK records for this time of year (the CCC’s report couldn’t have been more timely).
By 2050, the report states, heatwaves in southern England could regularly exceed 40°C, and may even breach 45°C.
This extreme heat poses a public health risk, particularly affecting the elderly, infants and those with chronic health conditions, leading to excess deaths (which already range from 1,400-3,000 each year) and putting pressure on the NHS.
While Part O of The Building Regulations (Approved Document O) sets out standards for mitigating overheating in new dwellings, we need to go further and address overheating for existing ones, which make up the vast majority of our housing stock.
Unlike many countries with more consistently hot climates where domestic air conditioning is a given, under 5% of homes in the UK have air conditioning.
According to the UK Green Buildings Council, 55% of homes in England already overheat during relatively cool summers, so with more aggressive heat waves on the horizon, more active cooling will need to be retrofitted in homes, particularly where those who are more vulnerable to heat and those on low incomes reside.
Our public sector buildings also largely lack adequate air conditioning; they were, as the CCC describes, ‘built for a climate that no longer exists’.
Environments like schools, hospitals, and care homes must protect the most vulnerable in our society, and combatting overheating here is of the essence.
What can the government do about it?
The CCC recommends the following three actions to government:
1. Invest in cooling for key public services. Cooling will be required in hospitals, schools, prisons, and care homes to function properly and prevent excess deaths from overheating. Low-cost passive measures should be prioritised, especially in new-builds where Part O standards have been followed for better climate resilience. (Note: In addition to this reasoning, we don’t want to jump straight to active air conditioning, which pushes out more heat into the already heating air, worsening the urban heat island effect). Active cooling will, however, be needed in areas at greatest risk, but this must be aligned to the transition to low-carbon heating systems where possible.
2. Set maximum temperature regulations for workplaces. As temperatures rise, so do the risks to workers’ safety. While businesses are responsible for taking their own measures towards climate adaptation, government must ensure they are providing safe work spaces, including for those who work outside. The CCC hasn’t suggested what temperature exactly this should be set at, but gives Spain’s regulations as an example, where maximum legal working temperatures are 27°C for sedentary work and 25°C for light physical work.
3. Accelerate the uptake of cooling for the most vulnerable. Additional support should be provided to those on low incomes, especially those who may already be vulnerable to heat, such as the elderly. The CCC say this could be provided through building on existing schemes that reach these groups, including by supporting heat pumps capable of heating as well as cooling (such as air-to-air heat pumps, which the Boiler Upgrade Scheme offers a £2,500 discount towards).
The cost of action vs. inaction
The CCC estimates that taking these proposed adaptation actions in the face of overheating would cost around £3.8 billion and produce a benefit-cost ratio of 3:1, assuming their rollout at a UK-national scale to 30% highest risk regions and demographics.
While the committee advises that this cost is likely to be an underestimation, the same goes for the return on investment too. Acting now, it maintains, is cheaper than acting later, especially where actions are low-cost but help to futureproof our buildings against climate impacts.
The CCC’s report makes the risks of inaction clear: without strengthered climate adaptation investment, we could be experiencing overheating in 92% of existing homes by 2050, a rise in heat-related excess deaths to 3,000-10,000 each year, and a public health crisis.
The UK is only getting hotter, and the actions Government take to mitigate these risks within the next few years will be crucial.
Amy McEwen is a Policy and Public Affairs Graduate for Mitsubishi Electric
