This April, the Clean Market Mechanism means that gas boiler manufacturers will be charged if they do not match 4% of their traditional boiler sales with the same amount of heat pump sales.
This is the first clear regulation ‘with teeth’ working to stop the sale of gas boilers, while far from any ‘ban’ that many have trumpeted may be likely in coming months in new builds.
However, will the Future Homes Standard (FHS) actually mean a ban, and does the industry yet have the clarity it needs in order to plan a way forward for low carbon heating in their new properties?
Will gas boilers ever be ‘banned,’ as the trigger-happy headline writers like to surmise?
Labour, despite its thumping majority, has so far failed to go anywhere near saying this. They are sitting in an uncomfortable territory where they are also afraid to suggest that the net zero target 2050 is nowhere near affordable without some fundamental changes.
When it comes to the industry’s need for clarity, if you sit on a fence there is a risk of splinters
James Parker Managing editor of Housebuilder and Developer and Architects Datafile
Recovering from the bacon sandwich
Ed Miliband was a former PM hopeful – his hopes were dashed by a variety of factors in 2015 including a shambolic campaign with bacon sandwiches and Jeremy Paxman as seemingly unbeatable adversaries.
Now he is in the hot seat at the Department for Energy, arguably with an only slightly less onerous task than running the country, i.e. leading our march towards ‘net zero.’
But is the transition towards a decarbonised heating future for new build homes turning into a similar shamble?
Miliband and Labour already rolled back the proposed £28m extra capital investment pre-Election, to try and avoid scaring floating voters, and possibly aware of the huge compromises they would now face on public spending.
Now, it looks more like £5m, a major climb-down financially, after the softening of targets on decarbonisation of household boilers, and EVs.
To ban or not to ban
Recently, Ed Milliband spoke at the Energy Security and Net Zero Committee, and was far from clear on the current strategy, seemingly still afeared of sticking his neck out to achieve a date when gas boilers will no longer be permitted.
He did say clearly that “there isn’t going to be a ban [in 2035]” in answer to the Committee’s questions, as Rishi Sunak had already rolled back from this pre-Election, and that the Government has no current plans to introduce a ban on gas boilers, period.
He added that he was “very wary of stopping people from having gas boilers at a point where we cannot guarantee that heat pumps are going to be cheaper.“ The Energy Secretary said that while the Future Homes Standard may not itself mean no more gas boilers, there was the possibility that a ban could come into force “at some point in the future.”
However, he said he was “very cautious” about questions around whether or not there will be a ban on gas boilers, which may be honest, but doesn’t give anyone any certainty either way.
Miliband defended the new Labour Government’s less than bullish approach to mandating low carbon heating, asserting that the new administration never said it would reverse Mr Sunak's row-back on his Government's original ‘boiler ban’ plans.
Keeping consumers on board
Miliband said that ensuring that consumers were on board and not financially disadvantaged was his prime motivation: “My bottom line is that we proceed in a way that means we can say to people: "You're going to be better off in making this transition."
He said that a prescriptive approach, followed by financial hardship, was not in the Government’s toolbox: “I do not want to be in a position where I say to people: "You must go down this road" and then people say to me rightly: "Look, you're going to make me worse off."
While he asserted this was a “position,” unfortunately the result is some very difficult fence-sitting when it comes to the industry’s need for clarity, and if you sit on a fence there is a risk of splinters.
He was asked specifically whether the Future Homes Standard would mean a ban on new gas boilers in homes, and could only say “there was enthusiasm for low carbon spec among housebuilders and others.”
He batted away the actual point, saying that Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) “would be coming forward with proposals” – we do not know when this will be, but you’d assume this year, given the standard is supposed to be introduced in 2025.
Delivering significant carbon savings
Whether or not the (more expensive) Option 1 or Option 2 is the chosen ‘notional building’ route for the final standard, it is thought both will require heat pumps as “a default,” either on a per-house, or heat network basis.
In terms of the FHS consultation as it stands, it states clearly that there is “no practical way to allow the installation of fossil fuel boilers while also delivering significant carbon savings and ‘zero-carbon ready’ homes. As such, we do not expect fossil fuel heating, such as gas, hybrid heat pumps or hydrogen-ready boilers, will meet these standards.”
This is fairly clear, at least. It remains to be seen whether this kind of wording will survive into the final Future Homes Standard.
Housebuilders are gearing up to install heat pumps, but they have to have clarity on what they are not ‘expected,’ but required to do, particularly as they will potentially be looking at a much higher cost outlay with the (generally preferred on carbon reduction and ongoing bills grounds) Option 1.
Ed Miliband, at the Select Committee, may have wanted to divert conversation around firm goals for this government to talk of right wing climate change deniers, and saying Farage and Truss, by attending a climate change-sceptic lobby group were trying to make net zero a ‘culture war.’
However, he needs to be more pragmatic and speak to industry about what is financially achievable with a mix of heat pumps and other forward-thinking solutions such as waste water heat recovery, to get even close to the targets.
James Parker is managing editor of Housebuilder and Developer and Architects Datafile
