We were recently at the Futurebuild event at ExCel in London, and there were a good batch of manufacturers (including the major boiler makers), who were displaying their heat pump solutions.
These included smaller air-to-water models which eschewed the need for separate cylinders.
These might provide key sales streams once space heating becomes a far less critical part of the heating demand of homes in future, with better fabric.
There has recently been some excellent news on the installation numbers of heat pumps, though we are still a way away from the 600,000 per year which was originally mooted (by Boris Johnson, remember him!?).
The current Government said that the number of ASHPs installed in 2024 was 52% more than the number recorded in 2023, showing that the incentives, as well as the intent behind them, is bearing fruit.
The spark gap between cheap gas and inflated electricity needs to be addressed
James Parker Managing editor of Housebuilder and Developer and Architects Datafile
Balancing energy prices
Running costs will need to fall for the massive target to be achievable, but also the spark gap between cheap gas and inflated electricity need to also be addressed quickly to ensure that things keep moving in this upward direction.
The Climate Change Committee (CCC) recently told the government that half of our homes (that’s new and existing) will need heat pumps by 2040.
According to EpIMS, who developed an EPC and energy efficiency platform for landlords, only around 1% of UK homes currently have a heat pump.
Based on a total stock of 30.4 million homes, the firm estimates that around 304,000 properties already have one installed.
By 2040, EpIMS reckons this will be just under 35 million homes (based on the past 40 years of development). This would mean that to hit the CCC’s target, 17.4 m homes would have a heat pump (17.1 million installed between now and 2040 – 15 short years).
Overcoming hurdles
The average installation cost of an air source heat pump is estimated to be over £10K (although this is of course offset hugely by the Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant currently set at £7,500.
As the economies of scale lead to this technology becoming more affordable, the installation cost will drop, but it has still been forecast to cost around £8,860 by 2040, meaning incentives have to stay in place for mainstream customers to buy in in numbers.
Things are moving in the right direction, but there are two major issues which need swift resolutions for the current targets to be more than pipe dream.
While there are many gas engineers in the UK who can adapt to heat pump installs, the re-training still needs to happen, and it is, yet not quickly enough.
The average age of engineers is around 55, meaning most will be eyeing retirement, if not already making plans to retire. Is the new blood coming in quickly enough? Probably not, so something fundamental really needs to happen at Government level, as well as the laudable industry schemes to recruit and re-train.
The Climate Change Committee sensibly revised the currently fanciful 600,000 per year target to 450,000 by 2030, but this faces a steep rise to 1.5 million a year by 2035 as the market matures.
If this happens then we will be well on the way to the net zero goal, but unless the cost of electricity is engineered downwards, the temptation to go for gas (in the absence of a firm ‘ban’) is still going to be strong for both the industry and the public.
James Parker is managing editor of Housebuilder and Developer and Architects Datafile
