Donald Trump is a climate denier. He tilts at windmills and throws shade on solar. He spells trouble for ESG. In truth, the only greens he cares about are on the golf course.
Hard to hear, but he is also a winner. Not only has the White House gone Republican red, so have the Senate and House of Representatives. Bets on a Trump trifecta paid out, big.
In the States, then, the green agenda looks dead, politically, at least in principle for the next four years. In practice, however, what will Trump 2.0 really mean for the wider world?
Whilst we might think global, we need to act local to survive Trump 2.0
Jim McClelland Sustainable futurist, editor, journalist and speaker
Turmoil, tariffs, and Truth Social
Well, ahead of the official inauguration on January 20, policymakers around the globe are for the most part minding their Ps and Qs. Financial markets, on the other hand, appear to have got the pre-Trump jitters. It is important, however, to keep things in context.
Almost half the world went to the polls in 2024, with elections in more than 70 countries. Administrations rolled over in rapid succession — Trump was not the only wild card.
Compare the line-up of G7 leaders today, with the one that met in Italy as recently as last June. Four premiers from 2024— Rishi Sunak (UK), Fumio Kishida (Japan), Justin Trudeau (Canada) and, of course, Joe Biden (US) — have already gone, or are going.
In Germany, having lost a confidence vote in December, Olaf Scholz has been forced to call a snap election. Near neighbours in France saw no fewer than four different Prime Ministers come and go in 2024 alone, leaving President Emmanuel Macron hanging on by his fingertips. Only Giorgia Meloni over in Italy still sits comfortably in the hot seat.
The last 12 months already served up a cocktail of geopolitical turmoil, even before the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, long tail of Covid and a dash of Brexit are added to the mix.
Talk of universal tariffs, plus a slew of provocations posted on the Truth Social platform by the President-elect are only fuelling fears and fires, pouring gasoline on a burning deck.
However, much of this is just talk, as yet. Savvy commentators have counselled that the smart tactic at this stage is to take Trump seriously, for sure, just not literally.
In part, we have also been here before. In his first term in office, Trump did impose tariffs on China, for example, as part of an America First policy. Interesting, Biden retained them.
In one of the last major moves of his Presidency, Joe Biden has also blocked the bid by Nippon Steel to buy US Steel, appeasing unions and citing reasons of national security. In effect, US protectionism might be viewed as something of a cross-party trait, anyway.
In other words, to assume we are set for wholesale policy upheaval is to over-simplify.
Winning, windmills and whales
Almost nothing is guaranteed with Trump…except perhaps when it comes to renewables.
He has likened turbines — or “windmills” as he calls them — to “litter” strewn across the landscape, labelling them “garbage”. He is proposing a moratorium on new-build onshore.
Arguing that wind power is “the most expensive energy ever”, he has even gone so far as to suggest that offshore installations may harm marine life and drive whales “crazy”.
His comments might have been targeted at developments in and around the US, but they nevertheless had an immediate negative impact on the share price of leading global players in wind energy worldwide, including Vestas and Ørsted in Denmark.
Much as these rantings seem wildly out of step with received wisdom in the likes of Europe or China, however, it would be a mistake to imagine he is alone in this thinking in the US.
In Oklahoma, for instance, despite the fact clean power accounted for 45% of all in-state electricity generation in 2023, momentum is building behind a push to ban renewables.
It is worth remembering that he won the popular vote in the US and increased his share in 90% of US counties, compared to how he fared in his disputed defeat in 2020.
Trump also has the backing of Big Tech, with Google and Microsoft each committing $1M towards his inauguration. In the wake of a dinner date at Mar-a-Lago, the u-turn on fact-checking by Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg also signals a shift to a more pro-Libertarian stance, much in the style of Trump wingman Elon Musk, owner of X (formerly Twitter).
President Trump certainly has a singular style; but he is not singing solo.
Grassroots green: Think global, act local
So, where does all this leave the global green movement?
Well, Trump is no team player — so collective action of almost any kind will lose favour.
Therefore, calls to back a unified approach to a renewables-driven one-world climate agenda, as championed at the COP summits, seem especially doomed to go unheeded. In fact, Trump even withdrew US support for the Paris Agreement last time around.
That said, not everything happens at the macro, international, or even national level.
Hundreds of Mayors from all over the US, for instance, stepped up to the plate previously, pledging their commitment to renewable energy targets, despite Trump’s edicts.
US investors also endorsed environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria during the period of the first Trump term, despite negative spin emanating from the Oval Office. Overall, the broader business case for sustainability stood up to the test surprisingly well.
Ultimately, therefore, perhaps this is the lesson to learn from the time of the original Trump administration. For the next four years, whilst we might think global, we need to act local.
Grassroots green is the way to go to survive Trump 2.0.
Jim McClelland is a sustainable futurist, editor, journalist and speaker
