In my last Hub article, I wrote about how I don't like targets. I explained that I can understand why targets are set, as it gives organisations and their teams something to aim for, but I’m always frustrated when, more often than not, I hear that ambitious targets that are set, haven’t been met.
Even when targets are set, often in stone under a legal framework, such as the climate change act, you can bet your bottom dollar there won’t be any repercussions when a legally binding target isn’t met. Convenient excuses will be found.
Targets do drive me mad and personally i wouldn’t set them (to avoid disappointment) but some kind of route or pathway is a huge benefit, so that you can make sure that you’re on the right path and don’t get lost along the way.
These extreme weather incidents should no longer be called ‘natural disasters’
George Clarke TV presenter, architect, writer and Ecodan Ambassador
A balanced pathway
The recently published (26th February 2025) ‘Climate Change Committee – The 7th Carbon Report’ does just that.
It provides a ‘balanced pathway’ to net zero. It is important to note that the CCC is a key advisor to government, keeping the government in check when it comes to net zero and it has a huge amount of influence.
The report was presented to the Secretary of State pursuant to Section 34 of the Climate Change Act. It reinforces the purpose of the government’s legal obligation to net zero in its executive summary:
“The UK’s Climate Change Act (2008) sets the framework for domestic action to address climate change mitigation and adaptation. The Act requires the Government to propose regular, legally binding milestones on the way to achieving Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions, known as carbon budgets.”
Why this matters
We know the planet is getting too hot. We’ve experienced some of the hottest temperatures on record in the last year as well as devastating ‘human-made’ disasters such as extreme heat waves and floods.
As a reminder, in my view, these extreme incidents should no longer be called ‘natural disasters’ because climate change is seen as the cause of so many of them.
We know that if we keep burning stuff things are going to get even worse for the planet with repercussions for every living thing on Earth.
We are on a pathway of transition and I’m genuinely feeling more optimistic than I’ve been in some time.
Maybe the combination of reading this new report and wring this column while I’m filming here in New Zealand, one of the greenest and most beautiful sustainable countries on earth, has given me renewed hope. It there seems to be so much more balance and harmony in New Zealand between humans and nature.
This new 7th Carbon Budget Report from the CCC is very, very good! It clearly states that the generation of clean, green electricity will make up the largest share of emissions reductions – 60% by 2040.
The end of gas
Home heating, particularly in the UK, is still far too dependent on burning gas.
According to Statista Research department (2 July 2024) 62% of all UK homes still burn gas to heat their homes while 4% burn oil. Thats 66% of all homes in the UK using carbon intensive fossil fuels to warm their homes, heat their hot water and burn the planet.
The remaining 34% is a mix of electric portable heaters, electric storage heater, wood, district/communal heaters and portable heaters other than electric and of course some homes, thankfully, will be heated by air source heat pumps.
That number is far too low at only 412 heat pumps per 100,000 people. Less than 1%.
This really has to change and fast!
Thankfully the oil-carrying, fuel-guzzling supertankers might be slowly turning soon to totally disappear into the distance.
Halving emissions
Home heating may still be a big problem, but we should genuinely celebrate the progress the UK has made overall in reducing its carbon emissions.
The report states that carbon emissions in the UK in 2023 were around half the levels they were in 1990. This is amazing progress.
However, making the transition from gas and oil to electrifying our home heating systems still remains a problem, but it is also a fantastic opportunity for us to dramatically reduce our carbon emissions further.
We also have the opportunity to transform the quality of air in our polluted towns and cities. The terrible effects of pollution on all of us would be massively reduced if there is an end to gas boilers in all homes and fossil fuel burning cars.
Credible and sound advice
I do love how the report doesn’t talk about too many ‘targets’ and is based on sound, credible analysis and research. It refers to a ‘Balanced Pathway’ and is regarded as being ‘advice’ to government.
Their advice is based on “the latest technological, social, and economic evidence; extensive sector modelling; engagement with stakeholders including businesses, trade unions, and farmers; and a citizens’ panel testing what would make changes accessible and affordable to households.”
The report is extensive and is definitely worth a read for anyone passionate about our pathway to net zero.
It covers everything from electrification and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) through to woodland creation and peatland restoration.
A heat pump for every home
Because I’m so passionate about green, innovative and sustainable homes that promote health and wellbeing for humans AND Planet Earth (in every way you could possibly imagine) the specific section on Heat Pumps fills me with optimism.
The Balanced Pathway sees around half of our homes in the UK heated using a heat pump by 2040. I’m still assuming that is not a random ‘target’, but an astute, highly strategic and realistic possibility based on the comprehensive analysis and research that the CCC has carried out.
If this is a realistic possibility, then it’s absolutely massive for UK housing and the air source heat pump industry.
For the avoidance of doubt, I’ve literally copied and pasted the section on HEAT PUMPS from the report’s executive summary. Here it is:
- Heat pumps: by 2040, our Balanced Pathway sees around half of homes in the UK heated using a heat pump, compared to around 1% in 2023. This requires the annual rate of heat pump installations in existing residential properties to rise from 60,000 in 2023 to nearly 450,000 by 2030 and around 1.5 million by 2035, a rate of increase in line with that seen in other European countries such as Ireland and the Netherlands. But installation rates do not exceed natural replacement cycles; heating systems are only replaced at the end of their life. All new and replacement heating systems become low carbon after 2035 to ensure a fully decarbonised housing stock by 2050.
I pray this happens!
0.2% of GDP
What also gives me hope is one of the most revealing things in the report. It’s about cost. It estimates that the net cost of hitting our net zero targets will only be around 0.2% of UK GDP per year on average.
If that is the case, then that is incredibly low in the grand scheme of things and shouldn’t be difficult for the country to find. 0.2% of GDP investment for a clean and green net zero economy is unbelievable value for money.
With firm, political and economic drive from the government we could raise that money even with all the other challenges we are facing at the moment. For example, rejoining the Customs Union would do it in a heartbeat!
If we can achieve the outcomes expressed in this ‘balanced pathway report’ then the UK will be a much better and greener place for it. It will mean the end of gas, which will be good for the planet and our own, much needed, energy security.
George Clarke is a TV presenter, architect, writer and Ecodan Ambassador
