As America starts to gear itself up for an absolutely fascinating electoral battle between not only two genders and cultures, but two utterly different generational mindsets, on this side of the pond what matters to voters is how many houses Labour will build in their street, and what will it do to the nutrient levels in their rivers.
That’s according to some parts of the media anyway, as the new Government hitches its aims to drive growth at all costs to the housebuilding horse. Unfortunately, that horse is currently convalescing.
An example this week of the media antennae twitching about the minutiae of housebuilding, post-election, shows how it has suddenly become possibly the biggest issue in mainstream discussion.
How much of Labour’s substantial aims will come to pass, once the realities of building kick in?
James Parker Editor of Housebuilder and |developer magazine
Neutral nutrients
Radio 4’s Today programme had an admittedly brief interview with Tony Juniper of Natural England about how the Labour is planning to change, and possibly relax the controversial Nutrient Neutrality rules on new builds.
It’s not been officially announced yet, but Labour is internally looking at pivoting to make it easier for developers to tackle requirements to mitigate the effect of their schemes on local nature.
And the fact this now makes the list of core news items for discussion, suggests that the interest in what might have previously seemed pretty esoteric bits of planning, is now firmly in the public consciousness.
In 2023 Conservative MPs put forward an amendment to the Levelling Up Bill to soften nutrient neutrality requirements and help clear the path for housebuilders.
However, as with many things now it is in power, Labour is trying to forge a tricky compromise between continuing with the requirements in the eventual Act but making the delivery of them a bit less onerous.
A can of worms
This issue is just one of a whole stack of cans of worms which Labour has assembled, as a result of putting housebuilding at the top of its agenda.
There are so many questions flying around in terms of the potential changes in housebuilding post-Election, that the silly season of stories about cats is unlikely to get a look in this year.
The question is just how much of Labour’s substantial aims will come to pass, particularly once the realities of building in every catchment start to be realised.
One of the most resonant comments from Chancellor Rachel Reeves in her first few days has been a firm drive to push private sector building rather than rely on social housing, and somehow ‘unlock’ the housebuilding sector. Many of the sites already have planning permission however, it’s about how to speed delivery, but at the end of 2023 approvals had dropped to their lowest level since 2006, so something is very wrong in planning.
Scratching the surface
Labour is recruiting 300 planning officers, but according to the Royal Town Planning Institute that is scratching the surface, as around 3100 left the profession between 2010 and 2020.
The Planning and Infrastructure Bill which Labour have said they’d introduce needs to be radical, in order to make the changes needed.
It needs to specify how, and ideally where Grey Belt land will be allocated, and quickly provide the means to support planning departments which are struggling to keep up with existing demand.
At the same time, the Bill needs to give the Government the teeth to override NIMBY objections which aren’t based on solid grievances, and to be implementable nationally.
If we stay as we are in terms of planning authorities with the current NPPF, it’s going to take millions of pounds, and several years, to get the manpower at local council level to push schemes through.
Although, when a company as big and tough as Lend Lease said that they would “never do another Elephant Park,” i.e. a highly controversial regeneration scheme in a dense and feverishly politicised urban area, it makes you wonder how resilient small developers and planners will have to be in smaller, yet equally difficult, planning situations that may result from Labour’s determination to build.
Rocket propelled
Labour thinks that putting a rocket under housebuilding is the answer to some of stagnant growth in the UK. But a recent post on Linkedin (from Complete Roofing Systems, though it could have probably come from a hundred places in the supply chain) poured cold water on Keir Starmer’s plans to do what the Tories failed to do, and build 300,000 homes a year.
The reasons were several, and well-known, principally that “housebuilders decide how many homes are built,” and that mortgage rates had driven a decline to the point London has seen registrations down by half year on year.
Mike Wharton, CEO of Complete Roofing Systems, continued the brutal reality check, saying that with 900,000 new construction workers already needed by 2028, “where exactly are we finding the numbers needed to meet an extra 300,000 houses?”
The bottom line, he said, even with the moves on planning likely to make a difference, with “most housebuilders reporting a 25-35% downturn, this is an uphill battle we can’t win.”
Ramping up investment
Forget about the potential of new towns, what is going to be in the proposed Planning and Infrastructure Bill to ramp up investment in public sector planning hugely, rather than the “expensive long-term contract” private sector planners Wharton refers to in his depressing litany of reasons why 1.5 million is never going to happen.
Approximately half of the planners currently working in the UK are in the private sector. The Government employing 300 new planners versus 300,000 homes per year is a frankly boggling bit of underestimation of the challenge. The industry really wants to speak to Labour to try and take the scales from its eyes, including on the hoped-for panacea of offsite, but will Labour listen?
Either the new government needs to talk to industry or have some truly game-changing ideas up its sleeve, if the great plans aren’t to quickly fall flat on their face.
Let’s see what Rachel Reeves says once she has sifted through the possibly alarming balance sheets her predecessor left behind, and reports on the nation’s finances later today.
Back in January, a survey by Knight Frank found that 70% of surveyed housebuilders wanted the Labour Party to win, in the context of Tory counterparts having run scared from a fundamental opening up of green belt sites. If Labour backs down on this and waters down its Planning Bill, it risks losing the cordial relationship fast.
James Parker is editor of Housebuilder and Developer magazine
