What is so special about 100 days and why is it so significant for Governments?
Conventional wisdom seems to dictate that 100 days is a great time period for achieving goals. It's a significant period to achieve progress, but short enough to leave no room for the “should we, could we, would we” dithering that can so often leave people businesses, organisations and governments hamstrung.
There is also the fact that the first 100 days after the child's birth is the most vulnerable period for both the mother and the newborn. This is why making it through the first 100 days is the perfect time to celebrate.
It might seem a little odd to assess a Government in days when it is set for a lifespan that should run into years, but then you are reminded of recent events where a Prime Minister failed to even make it half-way to the magic 100-day mark.
So, has Sir Kier Starmer’s new-born government come through this significant and important period unscathed? Not quite, but the signs remain positive and with the first major set of policies from the Chancellor due to be unveiled at the end of the month the sense of anticipation and maybe even hope remains.
Where is the long-term ambition to improve our existing leaky, draughty housing stock?
Paul Groves Group Editor for Specification
Is building new enough?
One thing the new Labour administration has done reasonably well so far is to avoid the trap of over-promising. We have yet to see a wave of the “best ever”, the “greatest ever” or the dreaded “world-leading” pronouncements to accompany policy proposals that left previous governments looking more than a little foolish.
What we have seen, unsurprisingly perhaps, is a continued focus on construction and particularly housebuilding as seemingly a panacea for almost all the economic woes and challenges facing the country.
Quite why politicians love to spout about how they are going to “Get Britain Building” again is wide open to interpretation. There most definitely is a housing crisis still impacting on the UK and there are numerous challenges ahead in terms of future-proofing our housing and making the nation’s stock more energy efficient and sustainable. The long-awaited Future Homes Standard will have a significant impact. But is “build, build and then build some more” the only answer?
Many within the industry, from housebuilders themselves to product manufactures and many others in-between, acknowledge that the real focus should perhaps be retrofit, rather than new-build.
Optimism or pessimism?
Indeed, recent surveys suggest the industry as a whole still needs a lot of convincing about the future even with the magic 100 days achieved.
With total new work output set to decline by 4.9% this year, according to the latest BCIS forecast, only 3% of those polled said they were ‘very’ optimistic that the forthcoming Budget would bring forward positive plans for construction.
The survey found that while 44% were ‘somewhat’ optimistic, 36% said they were ‘not really’ optimistic, and 12% were not optimistic at all.
BCIS Chief Data Officer, Karl Horton said: “The government clearly has some work to do to convince professionals that there is some substance behind its pledge to ‘get Britain building again’.
“With the latest reports that billions of pounds of capital spending cuts are on the cards, potentially impacting major infrastructure projects, the Budget might prove difficult reading.
“Slowing or cancelling major projects would shrink industry output, reduce job opportunities, and hurt sectors dependent on construction activity.
“We’ve been polling construction professionals in our quarterly economic outlook webinars over the past year and it’s encouraging that, in our latest update, 43% – the highest proportion we’ve had so far – said they expect their workload to increase over the next 12 months. A further 38% expect it to stay the same.
“We’re forecasting output to pick up next year, but the question of labour availability remains. With more than one-third of our respondents expecting availability to fall, and 41% saying they don’t foresee any change, any increase in demand could exacerbate existing skills shortages.”
New-build challenges
The challenge is amplified when you consider annual housebuilding cost inflation, as measured by the BCIS Private Housing Construction Price Index (PHCPI), stood at 0.7% in 2Q 2024, down from a peak of 15.3% in 2Q 2022. On a quarterly basis, this also represented a 0.7% increase compared with 1Q 2024.
Horton added: “Of the respondents reporting a change in costs, 38% pointed to an increase in materials costs. One-quarter reported increased subcontractor costs and 13% said they had experienced increased labour costs.
“Conversely, 13% reported a decrease in materials costs and a further 13% said they had experienced lower labour costs.
“One of the respondents noted that, for the first time in a decade, they have no housing to build due to a protracted planning process, while another also cited obtaining approvals as the biggest problem they have.
“Reforms to the planning system have been promised by the government, but much of the detail around its ambition to oversee 1.5 million new homes being built over the course of this Parliament remains to be clarified.
“We expect wider economic factors will continue to impact affordability, and therefore questions of viability for housebuilders, into next year.”
A need to upgrade
Brian Berry, Chief Executive of the FMB said Labour's ambition to drive economic growth is the right way forward. He described it is a “breath of fresh air” to see a government wanting to build and the need to build more homes is being tackled head on.
But he also warned: “Whilst the commitment to build new homes is very clear, proposals to upgrade five million homes remain opaque. Where is the long-term ambition to improve our existing leaky, draughty housing stock?
“Retrofitting is a Labour manifesto pledge and a lever for growth, but it’s all gone very quiet over at DESNZ, seemingly pushed aside by plans for Great British Energy. The upcoming Budget is an opportunity for the Government to commit to retrofitting the five million homes it stated in its manifesto, as this will really help to stimulate the market for the nation’s builders to adopt new green skills.
“The drive for economic growth is undisputed, but it may be a slower journey than Labour first anticipated at the start of this new administration.”
Paul Groves is Group Editor for Specification
